Consultancy for Public Finance Management (PFM) Study

REQUEST FOR PROPOSAL (RFP) Consultancy for the Public Finance Management (PFM) Study BRAC Ultra-Poor Graduation Initiative (UPGI) – Tanzania | Discovery Phase 1. Organisation Background BRAC International is a nonprofit organisation that works with communities and governments in Africa and Asia to reduce extreme poverty, drawing on more than five decades of programme experience and evidence from its roots in Bangladesh. BRAC’s Ultra-Poor Graduation Initiative (UPGI) helps governments adopt and scale the Graduation approach: a time-bound package of consumption support, a productive asset or capital transfer, skills training, savings and regular coaching that helps the poorest households build a stable, independent livelihood. UPGI works through government systems so that the approach can be sustained by the government. 2. Programme Background UPGI Tanzania is running a Discovery Phase to establish whether, and how, Tanzania’s existing systems can deliver a Government-led Graduation approach in line with Dira 2050. The work is anchored in TAMISEMI, with TASAF as the main delivery platform, and is taken forward through the National Graduation Task Force appointed by the Minister of State, PMO-RALG, in June 2026. A Government-led approach can only be adopted and sustained if it can be financed and delivered through public budgets and systems. The Discovery Phase therefore needs a focused understanding of current public expenditure, financing and financial-management arrangements, and of what the approach could cost. This PFM study provides that evidence for the subsequent Design Stage. This is a consultancy, additional to ongoing assessments under the Discovery Phase. It will draw on, rather than repeat, other Discovery Phase work. The Government owns all decisions on financing. The consultant’s role is analytical and advisory. 3. Objective of the Assignment To establish a focused understanding of the existing public expenditure, financing and financial-management arrangements relevant to a Government-led Graduation Approach in Tanzania; assess their practical implications for affordability and delivery; and provide an evidence base and indicative fiscal scenarios to inform the subsequent Design Stage. 4. Scope of Services The consultancy will address the following key areas. 4.1 Existing public expenditure and financing Establish a focused expenditure and financing baseline across PSSN/TASAF, PMO-RALG/LGAs and selected relevant programmes. Distinguish approved budgets, releases and actual expenditure, and identify the principal domestic, borrowing, grant and development-partner financing sources, subject to data availability. 4.2 Existing budgeting, institutional responsibilities and fund flows Map how relevant functions are currently budgeted, financed, authorised, transferred, paid, accounted for and reported across national and subnational levels. Identify the principal institutional responsibilities and existing budget/MTEF locations where evidence permits, without designing new institutional or fund-flow arrangements. 4.3 Budget execution and funding predictability Assess material issues affecting the predictability and timeliness of financing for relevant delivery functions, focusing on releases, expenditure, payments, procurement bottlenecks, accounting and reporting. Distinguish formal procedures from observed or reported practice; this is not a comprehensive fiduciary audit or control-system assessment. 4.4 Financing of core and recurrent Graduation delivery functions Identify the principal resource implications of key delivery functions, including coaching, supervision, productive support, training, transport, case management, MIS and follow-up. Distinguish existing funded capacity from likely incremental requirements and identify the main recurrent-cost drivers. 4.5 Indicative costing and fiscal feasibility Develop a limited set of bounded scenarios using agreed provisional assumptions. Distinguish existing versus incremental and start-up versus recurrent costs; identify confirmed financing and material gaps; and test key sensitivities relating to cohort size, service intensity and geographic coverage. The analysis will not constitute a final national programme budget. 4.6 Government-partner financing and key PFM constraints Describe confirmed Government and development-partner financing relevant to the proposed approach and distinguish prospective or uncertain financing. Identify material financing, execution, capacity and sustainability constraints that should inform subsequent programme design, without developing new financing mechanisms, detailed PFM reforms or implementation arrangements. 5. Deliverables and Indicative Timing The timetable may be refined at inception and confirmed in the Inception and Analytical Framework. All deliverables are submitted to the Programme Director. Deliverable 1: Inception and Analytical Framework Indicative timing: Dec 26-Jan 2027 Minimum content: Confirmed scope, study questions, methodology, priority evidence requirements, consultation plan, workplan and interface with other Discovery work. Deliverable 2: Focused PFM and Public Expenditure Diagnostic Indicative timing: February 2027 Minimum content: Selected expenditure and financing baseline; existing institutional and financial responsibilities; budgeting and fund-flow arrangements; execution and funding-predictability findings; principal recurrent-cost drivers; material bottlenecks; and clear evidence limitations. The diagnostic will not constitute a comprehensive public expenditure review, PEFA assessment or fiduciary audit. Deliverable 3: Indicative Financing and Fiscal Feasibility Scenarios Model Indicative timing: March 2027 Minimum content: An editable, bounded model covering agreed scenarios for existing/incremental and start-up/recurrent costs, confirmed financing and material gaps, key delivery assumptions and sensitivities. The model will not constitute a financing-mechanism design, funding commitment or final national programme budget. Deliverable 4: Final Report and Executive Decision Brief Indicative timing: April 2027 Minimum content: A concise consolidation of the diagnostic findings and fiscal-scenario implications, including key constraints, limitations and priority evidence or analytical issues requiring further consideration during the subsequent Design Stage. Detailed financing structures, fund-flow/payment options, fiduciary specifications, system adaptations, approval pathways and implementation design are excluded. 6. Deliverable Standards • Deliverables are written in clear, concise English. Consultations are conducted in Kiswahili where appropriate. • Government-facing products are concise and practical, with technical detail in annexes. • Every figure cites its source, and approved budgets, releases and actual expenditure are shown separately. • Assumptions and evidence limitations are stated clearly, and options are not presented as Government decisions. • Final deliverables are provided in editable Microsoft Word and Excel formats and as clean PDFs. 7. Qualifications This section sets out the minimum eligibility requirements and scored qualification criteria for the individual consultant. Eligibility is assessed on a pass or fail basis. An application that does not meet every eligibility requirement will not proceed to technical evaluation. A. Eligibility (pass or fail) The consultant must: • be an individual or firm legally able to work and invoice in the United Republic of Tanzania, with a valid Taxpayer Identification Number (TIN),VAT registration number and, for firms, a certificate of registration (BRELA) and valid business licence ; • Hold an earned PhD in Economics, Public Finance or a closely related discipline with substantive economics and fiscal-analysis content; • Have at least 15 years of relevant experience in economic research, public-finance or expenditure analysis, programme costing or related advisory work; • Must have completed at least three budget or expenditure assignments examining financing sources, execution constraints or funding predictability; • Must have completed at least two assignments in programme costing, unit-cost analysis, multi-year financing or financial/fiscal feasibility; • have undertaken at least three relevant assignments in Tanzania, collectively covering national and local government financing or service delivery; • have undertaken at least two assignments concerning social protection, poverty reduction, livelihoods or financing of pro-poor services, including at least one directly concerning social protection, or livelihoods; • have completed at least two relevant assignments as lead consultant, team leader, principal researcher or equivalent, with substantive analytical and reporting responsibility; • have excellent written and spoken English and Kiswahili; • confirm availability for 30 working days between November 2026 and March 2027; and • disclose actual, potential or perceived conflicts of interest involving the commissioning organisation, institutions under review or related assignments. Any declared conflict must be assessed as satisfactorily manageable by the commissioning organisation before eligibility is confirmed. B. Qualification criteria for the consultant In addition to meeting eligibility requirements the consultant/firm should be able to demonstrate the following qualifications. These are scored under the technical evaluation in section 11.2. 1. Public finance and expenditure analysis Ability to establish a focused expenditure and financing baseline; distinguish approved budgets, releases and actual expenditure; identify domestic, borrowing, grant and development-partner financing; and assess budget execution, financing timeliness and predictability. 2. Tanzania PFM and institutional systems Working knowledge of the budget cycle, Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), LGA transfers and financing. Ability to map existing budgeting, authorization, transfers, payments, procurement bottlenecks, accounting and reporting responsibilities across national and subnational institutions, including at least one large-scale, government-led national social safety net programme. 3. Costing and indicative fiscal feasibility Advanced Excel or equivalent spreadsheet skills and a record of transparent, editable costing/scenario models. Ability to separate existing/incremental and start-up/recurrent costs, participant support and delivery costs, and confirmed/prospective financing; document unit costs and assumptions; identify gaps; and test cohort size, service intensity and geographic coverage. 4. Social protection and economic inclusion Relevant analytical or costing experience in social protection, livelihoods or economic inclusion. Understanding of coaching, supervision, productive support, training, transport, case management, MIS and follow-up costs, distinguishing existing funded capacity from incremental requirements and recurrent-cost pressures. 5. Research methods and comparative judgement Financial-data analysis, document review, consultation, reconciliation and triangulation; clear treatment of assumptions and limitations; and distinction between formal procedures and observed practice. Ability to apply international evidence selectively, avoid double-counting and assess whether foreign costs and institutional assumptions are applicable to Tanzania. 6. Leadership and communication Responsibility for technical quality and timely delivery of comparable assignments; and concise diagnostic reports and executive decision briefs. Ability to engage relevant government institutions and partners, including the Ministry of Finance, Planning Commission, PMO-RALG and a large-scale, government-led national social safety net programme. 8. Management and Working Arrangements • The assignment is managed by the Programme Director, UPGI Tanzania, to whom the consultant reports. Day-to-day coordination is through the Senior Programme Coordinator. • The consultant is fully responsible for all ground work: identifying respondents, securing appointments, obtaining any permissions needed, and collecting, verifying and analyzing data. UPGI will not make introductions, arrange meetings or obtain data on the consultant’s behalf. • The consultant is expected to use their own professional networks to reach the Ministry of Finance, Planning Commission, PMO-RALG, LGAs, TASAF and development partners, and to build this into the work plan. • Managing access to people and data is part of the assignment. Problems with access do not justify late delivery unless the consultant reports them to the Programme Director in writing as soon as they arise, together with a proposed solution. • The consultant agrees the interface with other Discovery Phase work at inception, to avoid duplication and keep assumptions consistent. • The consultant does not speak for, or make commitments on behalf of, Government or BRAC. • UPGI provides written comments within 7 working days of receiving each deliverable. • Any significant change to scope, methodology or timeline requires BRAC’s prior written approval. 9. Level of Effort and Duration The assignment requires 30 working days between December 2026 and April 2027: • Inception and Analytical Framework: 4 days; • Focused PFM and Public Expenditure Diagnostic: 10 days; • Indicative Financing and Fiscal Feasibility Scenarios Model: 8 days; and • Final Report and Executive Decision Brief: 6 days. 10. Mandatory Administrative and Compliance Documentation Applicants must submit: • An up-to-date, signed CV; • An assignment matrix listing relevant assignments against each eligibility requirement, with client, dates, role and outputs; • Copies of academic certificates, including the PhD; • A copy of a national ID or passport; • TIN certificate; • VAT certificate • Contact details of at least three professional referees; • A signed declaration of availability for 30 working days between November 2026 and March 2027; • A signed conflict-of-interest declaration; and • A signed declaration of compliance with applicable anti-terrorism laws, including the Anti-Terrorism Act of the United Republic of Tanzania. 11. Evaluation Criteria 11.1 Compliance and eligibility check Applications are first checked for the mandatory documents in Section 10 and against the eligibility requirements in Section 7A. Incomplete, non-compliant or ineligible applications are not evaluated further. 11.2 Technical evaluation Eligible applicants will be assessed on the relevance, analytical quality and demonstrated individual contribution evidenced in their CV, assignment matrix, work samples, model evidence and references. Meeting eligibility requirements does not automatically earn technical points. Applications are scored out of 100 against the qualification criteria in Section 7B, as follows: 1. Public finance and expenditure analysis Points: 25 2. Tanzania PFM and institutional systems Points: 20 3. Costing and indicative fiscal feasibility Points: 20 4. Social protection and economic inclusion Points: 15 5. Research methods and comparative judgement Points: 10 6. Leadership and communication Points: 10 Total: 100 points Minimum qualifying technical score: 75/100. Scoring: Award 0%, 25%, 50%, 75% or 100% of each criterion’s points for absent, limited, adequate, strong or exceptional evidence. Adequate evidence demonstrates the stated core capabilities; stronger ratings require greater relevance, depth and substantiated analytical quality. Evaluators must record a brief evidence-based justification for each score. BRAC may invite shortlisted applicants to an interview to verify experience, contribution or availability. 11.3 Financial evaluation Financial proposals are considered only for applicants who reach the minimum technical score. The lowest evaluated price receives 100 points, and other proposals are scored as follows: Financial score = (lowest evaluated price ÷ price of the proposal) × 100 11.4 Combined score and ranking The applicant with the highest combined score is ranked first and may be invited to negotiate before award. Combined score = (technical score × 0.80) + (financial score × 0.20) 12. Payments Consultancy fees are paid in three instalments, each against delivery and acceptance of the deliverables shown: Instalment 1 Deliverables: Inception and Analytical Framework (Deliverable 1) Indicative timing: December 26-Jan 2027 Share of fees: 20% Instalment 2 Deliverables: Focused PFM and Public Expenditure Diagnostic; (Deliverables 2) Indicative timing: February 2027 Share of fees: 30% Instalment 3 Deliverables: Indicative Financing and Fiscal Feasibility Scenarios Model and 3) Indicative timing: March 2027 Share of fees: 30% Instalment 4 Deliverables: Final Report and Executive Decision Brief (Deliverable 4) Indicative timing: April 2027 Share of fees: 20% Total: 100% Additional payment and expense provisions: • The consultant/firm is responsible for obtaining personal health insurance at their own cost, covering all medical expenses, including those resulting from illness or injury, for the duration of the assignment. • Any in-person meetings or travel required for the assignment will be covered by BRAC along with suitable accommodation as per BRAC’s policy, and reimbursed on actuals. • The consultant/firm will quote a daily fee in TZS for 30 working days, inclusive of applicable taxes. Payments are subject to withholding tax under Tanzanian law. 13. Submission Instructions Applications must be submitted electronically to bmtadmin@brac.or.tz by 15th November 2026. The email subject should read: “UPGI Tanzania Discovery Phase – PFM Study” The submission should contain two clearly labelled files: 1. Technical Proposal CV, assignment matrix, at least one work sample, evidence of a costing or scenario model developed by the applicant, referees, and the mandatory documents in Section 10. 2. Financial Proposal Daily fee, total fee for 30 working days, and any assumptions. Late submissions may be rejected in accordance with BRAC procurement procedures. Any questions should be submitted in writing to bmtadmin@brac.or.tz by 9th November 2026. 14. Confidentiality and Compliance • Information and data supplied through the procurement and during the assignment are confidential and may be used only for this assignment, unless otherwise agreed in writing. • All reports, models, datasets and other outputs belong to BRAC and may be shared with Government, subject to the ownership and use provisions of the final consultancy agreement. The consultant/firm shall comply with applicable BRAC policies and legal requirements, including safeguarding, ethical conduct, anti-fraud, anti-corruption and anti-terrorism obligations, including the Anti-Terrorism Act of the United Republic of Tanzania.